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Aware that secession can make them stand accused of the historic failing, the Khartoum administration desires to help make the process appear difficult. Members of the NCP believe that it could be easier to remove concessions from both southern Sudan and key Western states like the US prior to the referendum, so they would like to wait until very the last minute. Delays in disbursing financing to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) and the Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau (SSRB) are types of this deliberate delaying strategy.
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This clear position on UDI offers a glimmer of hope, although one cannot rule out a possible return to war, given the sporadic outbreaks of antagonism between the celebrations. However, a timely and successful conclusion to the self-determination processes in southern Sudan and the disputed Abyei area could be a vindication for both signatories to the CPA and for its international guarantors. It would open up the way to the normalization of relations with Western donor countries and international establishments, and for peaceful relations between your north and south.
The guarantors to the CPA are collectively responsible for the diplomatic confusion, failings, and sluggishness since 2005, which have allowed Khartoum to renege on key execution benchmarks and have led to the current near collapse of the agreement. Khartoum has escaped censure over its manipulation of cultural, military, and political tensions throughout Southern Sudan.
The African Union (AU) has appointed a high-level -panel led by Thabo Mbeki (former leader of South Africa), which is supporting talks between the SPLM and NCP on postreferendum issues, including the Abyei referendum. It is these stumbling blocks and the possibility of a go back to the war that this paper looks for to assess. Both NCP and way more even, the federal government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), are powered by the fact that a confrontation is probable.
This shapes a range of security strategies. The paper appraises the interests, efforts, and dynamics posed by nationwide, regional, and international actors in either sustaining or responding to the potential security crisis. The security situation remains precarious Nationally, and regionally the problem is bound to spill over, so politics will is needed to sustain the many ongoing diplomatic attempts in the face of the looming risk of a return to war.
Specific attention is given to the security implications due to the dynamics between Sudan’s neighboring countries and from key international interactions. The paper concludes with some concrete recommendations. Groundwork for both referenda (in Southern Sudan and Abyei) as per the date given in the CPA and in the referendum acts is much behind routine.
